Can a Perpetual Swap Trade at a Significant Premium or Discount to the Spot Price?
Yes, a perpetual swap can trade at a temporary significant premium or discount, especially during periods of extreme market volatility or low liquidity. However, the funding rate mechanism is designed to prevent this deviation from persisting.
A large premium leads to a high positive funding rate, which makes it very expensive for longs and incentivizes shorts/arbitrage, forcing the price back down toward the spot level.