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How Can a Miner Estimate the Expected Variance in Their PPLNS Earnings?

A miner can estimate variance by calculating the standard deviation of block discovery times for the pool, combined with the pool's average luck over a long period. This statistical measure provides a range of expected outcomes around the mean.

A larger pool size generally reduces the pool's overall variance, leading to more predictable earnings for the miner.

How Do Pool Fee Structures like PPS and PPLNS Affect Miner Payouts?
How Does the Variance in Block Discovery Impact a Miner’s Income under PPLNS?
Why Does Pay-Per-Last-N-Shares (PPLNS) Often Have Lower Fees than PPS?
What Is the Concept of ‘Variance’ in the Context of Mining Pool Profitability?