How Do You Forecast Future Protocol Revenue for a Crypto Project?

Forecasting protocol revenue involves projecting the growth of key adoption metrics, such as the number of active users, daily transaction volume, and the average transaction fee. This requires market research on the total addressable market (TAM) and the project's expected market share.

Revenue can come from transaction fees, lending interest, or subscription-like services. Projections are typically segmented into a high-growth phase and a stable terminal phase, with sensitivity analysis to account for high uncertainty.

What Is a ‘MEV-Share’ Protocol and How Does It Redistribute MEV?
How Does a Layer-Two Scaling Solution Impact the Transaction Fee Revenue of Layer-One Miners?
What Is Sensitivity Analysis and Why Is It Crucial for Crypto Forecasts?
How Does a Tiered Fee Structure for Market Makers Promote Higher Trading Volume?
How Does a Pool Operator Estimate the Volume of Electricity Futures Contracts They Need to Purchase?
How Does the Quantity Theory of Money (MV=PQ) Relate to Token Valuation?
How Does a token’S Inflation Rate Affect the Revenue Model’s Sustainability?
How Does Competition Impact a Protocol’s Projected Fee Capture Rate?

Glossar