How Does a Lack of Convergence at Expiration Indicate High Basis Risk?
A lack of convergence means that the futures price and the spot price remain significantly different on the expiration date. Since the fundamental principle of futures is that the prices must converge at expiration, a failure to do so indicates that there is a major market inefficiency, a logistical bottleneck, or a flaw in the reference rate, all of which represent high, unhedged basis risk.
Glossar
Convergence at Expiration
Expiration ⎊ Convergence at Expiration, within cryptocurrency derivatives, denotes the precise moment an options contract ceases to exist, marking the culmination of its lifecycle.
Convergence
Equilibrium ⎊ Convergence, within cryptocurrency, options, and derivatives, signifies a state where market prices across different exchanges or related instruments align, reflecting efficient information dissemination and reduced arbitrage opportunities.