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What Is the Probability of an OTM Option Expiring ITM?

The probability is generally low and decreases the further the option is Out-of-The-Money.
Greeks.Live02.11.25

What Is the Probability of an OTM Option Expiring ITM?

The probability of an OTM option expiring ITM is generally low, and this probability decreases as the option moves further OTM. This probability is often approximated by the option's Delta, though Delta is a rate of change, not a pure probability measure.

What Is Meant by an Option Being ‘In-the-Money’ (ITM), ‘At-the-Money’ (ATM), or ‘Out-of-the-Money’ (OTM)?
How Does ‘Delta’ Relate to the Probability of an Option Expiring ITM?
What Is the Primary Reason for Low Liquidity in Out-of-the-Money Options Contracts?
How Does the Relationship between Delta and the Probability of an Option Expiring In-the-Money Affect Trading Strategy?

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