Why Is the Probability of a Single Share Being a Valid Block Extremely Low?
The probability is extremely low because the network difficulty target for a valid block is orders of magnitude higher than the pool's share difficulty target. The network requires a hash that starts with a very long string of zeros, while a share only requires a shorter string of zeros.
A single share meeting the network difficulty is a rare event.
Glossar
Share Difficulty
Metric ⎊ This parameter quantifies the computational effort required for a single successful hash submission to be accepted by the network consensus mechanism.
Network Difficulty Target
Calibration ⎊ Network Difficulty Target functions as a dynamic parameter within proof-of-work blockchains, adjusting computational cost to maintain consistent block creation intervals.
Valid Block
Confirmation ⎊ A valid block, within a blockchain context, represents a data package cryptographically appended to the chain following consensus protocol stipulations, signifying transaction finality and state updates.
Probability
Modeling ⎊ Probability is fundamental to quantitative finance, providing the mathematical framework for modeling asset price movements and calculating risk.